TEST OF DEMOCRACY: WHAT BRAND OF ELECTIONS WILL NIGERIANS GET IN 2015?

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29-33 Cover story 1Every Nigerian and concerned citizens of the civilized world must be looking forward to Nigeria’s 2015 general elections with bated breath. There are many questions on people’s minds. What will the Presidential election scheduled alongside National Assembly elections for February 14, 2015 bring forth? Will it be free? Will it be fair? Will it be credible? Will the results of the presidential elections be acceptable even if the answer to the fore-going is ‘Yes’? Will Nigeria remain one peaceful nation brand or will it erupt in nation-threatening hoopla?

   There are sufficient grounds to be apprehensive and cautious and these are aptly captured by the executive summary of the conference held by the 19-year old multinational body known as the International Crisis Group which is reproduced in this report. Luckily, the group has also proffered antidotes to what they consider foreseeable challenges that has the potential to destabilize the Nigerian brand.

   For the first time, Nigeria has what may be described as two truly national parties. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has always had a national outlook and spread with relative presence and strength in all the geopolitical sections of the country. Until last year, it was the only party with that status. But when the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), a party with major strengths in the South-West and some influence in the South-South joined forces with Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) who had a huge following in the North-East and North-West and what was left of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) to merge into a new national party named All Progressives Congress (APC), PDP knew they were now faced with a formidable foe. The major interest of the new party (APC) is to grab power at the centre; a coveted crown that PDP had come to take for granted having been in the saddle since 1999. Meanwhile, this is an unprecedented platform for former head of state, General MuhammaduBuhari who had thrice contested and lost against Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and then against incumbent president Jonathan. At about 72, should Buhari fail to win the nomination of his party or win the elections proper, he knows the game will be over for him. So just how desperate his huge fanatical followers will be, can best be imagined.

   The PDP on its part is desperate to hold on to the centre as certain developments in recent times attests. Top APC members have been lured to PDP and there has been “a show of strength against” the defecting speaker of the House of Representatives, AminuTambuwal and some ‘out-of-line with PDP’governors. Nobody loves to willy-nilly give up power. The 2015 presidential elections will be Nigeria’s most tightly contested ever. We can only hope that the political gladiators will play according to the rules and take steps to moderate their utterances and actions as well as those of their followers. After all, it is only when we have a country that they can jostle for political power.

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   BRANDPOWER also spoke with 2 respected lawyers and erudite analysts who are members of the PDP and APC respectively: Mr. George Eke and Ashiwaju Bisi Adegbuyi. Though they both share the same apprehensions over the elections, both are confident that their respective party will carry the day. Their detailed interviews also follow in this section.

 

29-33 Cover story 3How Prepared isINEC for 2015?

Attahiru Muhammadu Jega is a Professor of political science. Having reached the top of his academic career as Vice-Chancellor of Bayero University, Kano and previously served as a fiery president of Association of Academic Staff of Universities (ASUU), Jega’s nomination and eventual appointment as the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was hailed by many as putting a a square peg in a square hole. Coming from the inglorious days of Professor Maurice Iwu under whose tenure as Chairman, INEC conducted the worst set of elections in recent history, Jega was believed to be the new lease of life for the floundering electoral empire brand. Gladly, one general election and several isolated elections after, Nigerians are largely relieved that Jega has not disappointed, so far.

At various fora within and outside the country, Jega has been effusive about how well prepared INEC is to present Nigerians with smooth, free, fair and credible elections even as he assures that INEC is putting everything in place for the smooth conduct of the 2015 elections. At a public lecture on “Values, Electoral Systems and the Importance of Successful Elections In Nigeria’s Foreign Policy” at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Lagos recently, Jega was reported as saying: “Our preparation for 2015 elections have three focal points namely, structure, policy and plan. In structure, we have taken a long and deep look at INEC as an institution –its structure and processes, as well as its human resources. In policy, we have focused on developing new policies to guide our work and create the right normative framework for successful election management in Nigeria.

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“Finally in planning, we have focused on both strategic planning.”

Jega added that a Strategic Plan (2012 to 2016), and a detailed Strategic Program of Action have been formulated and are being implemented.

“A detailed Election Project Plan has been drafted, and is being implemented to ensure seamless execution of specific tasks leading to the 2015 elections. A comprehensive re-organisation and restructuring of the Commission has been completed, drawing from the recommendation of a highly rated management consulting firm”.

29-33 Cover story 5Seeking patience and empathy from the electorate and politicians, Jega reminded his audience that it should always be borne in mind that Nigeria is still a country in transition. “In the sense of consolidating democratic structures and practices. We are still nurturing a democratic political culture after years of military rule and the anti-democratic tendencies it fostered. “Consequently, our electoral system is yet work-in-progress and calls for the implementation of reform measures that are aimed at incremental positive changes that are sustainable. Democratisation, in all societies, is neither swift nor smooth sailing. It is always a long and tortuous process that takes place in incremental waves”.

Noting that some hard lessons had been learned from reviews of 2011 elections, Jega observed that good elections are about adequate and timely planning. “We have come to learn that there is no alternative to planning and preparing adequately. Election projects in a country like Nigeria are massive undertakings and require very professional planning”.

While in New York to monitor the mid-term elections earlier this year, INEC Chairman, AttahiruJega declared in an interview with Thisday newspaper that it would be difficult for politicians to rig the 2015 election, assuring that in spite of the general insecurity in the North-east, no part of the country would be disenfranchised. He promised that all the good things the commission did in 2011 will be repeated in 2015 According to him “We shall be using card readers which we believe will add tremendous integrity to the electoral system. We are using NYSC members, lawyers and retired judges. We are bringing more people of integrity. We did biometric registration and we issued permanent voters’ cards. The idea is to use card readers with electronic chips that will help identify the person who was actually registered,” he said.

He further told the newspaper that politicians would no longer be able to buy cards or use the cards of dead people to vote: “The biometric card reader will add tremendous integrity to the electoral system. We have used eight months to clean up the register, which is one of the best in the African continent.

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“We are saying that in 2015, if anybody rigs the election, that person will be apprehended and punished. Rigging will not determine the electoral fortunes of anybody. Let me also add that from all perspectives, operationally and logistically, we are ready for the 2015 elections from the perspective of the electoral management body and we are working closely with all stake holders to address some of the outstanding challenges.

29-33 Cover story 4 “Security is a major challenge. However, we are working with the security network to ensure that elections are held in every part of Nigeria including the North-east. We implore everyone to come out and register and elect the right people to office. My advice is that all stakeholders should be actively engaged in the process and stop being sarcastic but should work towards ensuring the true choice of the people emerge in 2015.

“We have done so many things including cleaning up the register of voters. In 2011, we had barely eight months to clean up the register but now we had four years to do this and we put the four years to good use.”

Jega also told reporters many electoral commissioners from other countries benefited from an exchange of ideas with many of them applauding the great reforms the Nigerian electoral system has undergone since 1999.

The INEC boss added: “We have to earn the confidence and trust of voters in our country. Sadly Nigerian politicians suspect everything we do but we have to make it clear we are working towards a transparent electoral system, letting them know we work towards having a level playing field for everybody.”

On a final note Jega is quoted on the INEC website as saying that “Our preparations in INEC give us the confidence that the 2015 elections will be much better than 2011; indeed they will compare favourably with credible elections anywhere in the world. We are painstaking with our plans, and we are introducing new processes that are designed to check the abuses of the past.” But he gives a caveat that “Ensuring free, fair and credible elections is not a task INEC alone can deliver. All stakeholders have important roles to play, and we must strengthen partnerships and collaborative endeavours to bring this about.”  INEC has spoken. Are all other stakeholders on the same page with INEC? …2015 will tell.